Worksheet Templates. Wednesday , April 04th , 2018 - 02:56:39 AM
When coming to the share of future toll revenues, Dave gets creative. The company has never done this before and both the toll fares and actual volume of traffic over the bridge are unknown. In a separate tab in his cash flow worksheet, Dave creates two grids. The first is a range of car traffic volumes from 10,000 to 30,000 cars per day (the volume range used by the engineers to build the bridge). He applies a growth rate multiplier and extends the grid to the right for 10 years, multiplying each time step by a growth multiplier. He then builds a similar grid of toll fees and toll growth rates and arrays them to the right for 10 years. Finally, Dave uses his Excel statistical analysis add-in to generate a probability distribution of toll revenues for each year. Dave creates 5 scenarios based on the mean toll revenue, with revenues varying plus and minus one and two standard deviations to get 5 estimated cash flow paths.
In the last step of his cash flow worksheet, Dave sums the expenses and revenues for each year and all 5 scenarios. He charts these out in graphs with a horizontal line for minimum acceptable return. ESP has access to public project funding at a 6% interest rate, to which he adds 3% for additional risk factors, for a 9% discount rate. Finally, he discounts the net returns per year under all scenarios at 9%, and calculates an NPV for each revenue path. This gives him 5 project values at 5 different revenue assumptions based on his variable markup. At least 3 of these NPVs must exceed the companys 12% hurdle rate in his cash flow worksheet for the bid to viable.
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